Bibi's Choice

Bibi hasn't yet called me for advice on how to build his coalition, but here's what I think he'll do....

His first call will be to ...... Shaul Mofaz.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if he offers Kadima the chance to either merge with Likud or become part of his coalition, maybe even offer Mofaz a senior cabinet post like defence  (He has experience with a Defence minister from a left-wing insignificant party).

His next call may well be to .... numbers 4-7 from Tzippi Livni's list and offer them the chance to join Likud. Some of them are former Likud members (Meir Sheetrit) or have a religious background (Elazar Stern), and none of them seem to have any problem changing allegiance if something better comes along.

If Bibi can get Kadima and  at least a few of the Tanua members on board, that will strengthen Likud to 35 mandates or more and remove any talk about a "60-60 left-right split" (which I don't think really exists for reasons described by Life in Israel).

Bibi then has 3 possible combinations for a stable government:

• Status Quo (Likud, Bayit Hayehudi and the Charedim). This would be the easiest coalition to form as these parties are regarded as the "Right-Bloc" and as natural partners. I don't think that this is Bibi's first preference, but if other negotiations fail, it's a good fallback plan.
• A National Unity Government with Yair Lapid, Labour, and maybe Tzippi Livini. I don't think this is likely as Shelly would be foolish to join Bibi as a junior member of the coalition. She is a smart politician and would be much better off as leader of the opposition where she can formulate an alternative policy to the government which would give her a credible chance in the next election (provided that she can formulate a responsible alternative - not just scream the opposite of whatever Bibi says which was Tzippi's policy).
• Coalition with Bayit Hayehudi, Yair Lapid. This would be the first time since Shas was founded that it was not included in a government, but it actually makes a lot of sense as Likud, Yesh Atid, and Bayit Yehudi have very similar policies on the economy, housing, social issues (reforming the Rabbinate), and drafting Yeshiva students.

In theory there could be a coalition that includes Yair Lapid and Shas, but I don't see any overlap between their stated policies and hard to see how they would sit in a government together.

OK - now all I need to do is wait for Bibi to call me for advice. Bibi - if you're too busy to call, I'm providing the info for you here on this blog free of charge.