Thursday, July 9, 2009

I Should be in Politics

Once in a while I manage to make a good call in politics.

Last week Rafi said:

There are all sorts of rumors and assumptions about how the "rift" between the USA and Israel, or more specifically between Barak Obam and Benjamin Netanyahu, will play out in the coming weeks.
I do not make any assumptions as to what Obama's intentions are, nor about what Netanyahu is going to do.
I do, however, see 2 possible outcomes of all this.
1. Netanyahu will "mitkapel" - fold. It is not completely unrealistic to expect this. the pressure on him from the American government seems to be (if the media reports are to be trusted) enormous, and he has plenty of experience of folding and not implementing right-wing policy (which is what he is meant to represent) but left-wing policy.

2. the better outcome is that Netanyahu stands strong against US pressure and tells Obama to go take a hike. And instead of grovelling to find ways to throw bones to Obama to get him off our backs, he says "No more".

I predicted a third possibility:

… I think that the most probable outcome is neither of the options that you mentioned but somewhere in the middle - they will come up with a formula (e.g., finish construction that has already been started, or only construction in specific areas, or some other formula) which will allow both sides to claim that they didn't back down.

Today’s lead article in the Jerusalem Post:

Israel and the US are moving toward a compromise solution on the settlement issue that might allow both sides to claim "victory," The Jerusalem Post has learned.
According to senior government officials, under this type of solution, Israel would declare a moratorium of a few months on the settlement issue, possibly half a year, while the US would give Israel a green light to complete a still-to-be-determined number of housing units in the settlements that are in advanced stages of construction.

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